How To Accurately Predict The Bitcoin Price
During Bitcoin Wednesday on 6 February 2019, Nikolai Zaitsev will present his latest work on Bitcoin price prediction. Nikolai is Director of Innovaest, a consultancy specialized in risk and pricing models. His latest work is a scientific analysis of the Bitcoin price from an option perspective.
Bitcoin is a new asset class. Some of the risks around Bitcoin such as trading and transferring are also new. Nevertheless, some old knowledge and methods can be applied. For example, as a crowd, option traders express their view of Bitcoin development via the option prices they are marketing. Mathematics and a few tricks allow extraction of this forward-looking information from current option prices.
In his presentation Nikolai will demonstrate his relatively simple method and explore his results which will include some of his latest predictions and his own beliefs about Bitcoin prices. His talk will also cover answers to the following questions:
- At what period are these price predictions valid?
- Under what circumstances can these predictions diverge from reality?
Nikolai has served as Head of Quantitative Trading Risk Analytics at ABN Amro, Head of Price Modelling and Methodology at GMK Risk and Head of Quantitative Strategies and Risk Management at Fortis. He has more than 18 years experience in the banking industry and has accumulated deep knowledge of the Risk, Pricing, Modelling and Operational streams within the global markets, commercial and banking business in general. He also has a PhD in high energy physics from the University of Amsterdam and has conducted more than 9 years of research for NIKHEF at CERN, INFN in Naples, Italy and PNPI in St. Petersburg, Russia.